COVID the long term fast outbreak

One single quarantine won’t be enough to control this pandemic. This is the premise or an article recently published in the journal Science1, the panel of which is composed of partially by Harvard scientists. In the mentioned article, the scientists warn of the high probability of a cyclical phase of constant adjustments in lockdown measures.

In an initial stage, issuing restrictive measures to fight a peak of infections with the objective decreasing the number of cases. Then, after seeing the effectiveness of those measures, comes the easing of said measures. A while later, there will probably come a new increase of cases, which translates into, again, more restrictive measures to prevent a huge increase in critical cases to maintain said cases in a manageable number. That being said, predictions lead to the next few months being a playback of cycles between restriction and expansion of restrictive measures.

A more concrete example of this prediction is the very real case of the USA, where the biggest focal point of cases is in New York. The cases in this American city represents approximately 32% of the entirety of confirmed cases, and the main reason why is due to the high population density. In this scenario of the fast spread of the virus, happens in a state capital, on the other hand, there’s a slower spread speed in rural areas and communities where there’s a tendency for the population to be somewhat older and by consequence with chronic diseases or in fragile health conditions.

Photo by Dan Burton on Unsplash

With these different paces of transmission is fair to say that we’ll be in a constant adjustment of measures because we’ll never have a harmonization of the pace that this virus spreads in the different types of communities. Therefore there’s going to be a need to resort to harsher restrictive measures every time there’s a sign of an uncontrolled rise of cases.

In our opinion we’ll be seeing a slow recovery in the future, especially comparing to the previous crisis, not only in economic areas like tourism but also in the industrial sector. A clear drop I consumption will be seen, caused by the state of uncertainty, and the restrictive measures there will forcibly impair the production of goods, which will cause the bankruptcy of less robust companies and effectively increase the unemployment rate.

Without a vaccine, it will be very difficult to go back to regular economic conditions. Meanwhile what’s left for us to do is to learn to live in these uncommon times.

1- https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/14/science.abb5793

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