Weekly summary 11-15 July 2022

USA

The first part of last week was somewhat negative for the stock markets, however, the main indices managed to recover part of those losses, ending the week with only slight losses.

Not to vary, expectations of inflation data were one of the drivers of the negative sentiment. Partially relieved thanks to the good performance of some of the tech giants in the stock market.

Despite this, consumer sentiment indicators show that there has been an improvement in consumers’ expectations and a better expectation of their financial situation. It should be noted that a higher than expected rise in the benchmark interest rate above 0.75% would be detrimental to sentiment, adding to fears of recession.

Europe

Recession fears are growing in Europe as Russia threatens to cut off gas supplies to Europe. Russia has closed Nord Steam 1 for maintenance until Friday, however, some members of the German government are concerned that they may open with even less capacity in retaliation. This after having already cut capacity by 40%.

The euro has reached parity with the dollar, something that has not happened for 20 years. This means higher costs for Europe whenever it needs to import goods. It will be more noticeable when it comes to oil contracts, which are usually traded in US dollars.

Italy faces another political crisis, Prime Minister Mario Draghi has resigned after a boycott of a proposal. Italian President Sergio Mattarella rejected his resignation, and Mario Draghi will now try to form a new majority.

Asia

Japanese markets returned to positive territory as Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reinforced his intention to maintain a monetary policy ready to support the economy. The ruling coalition consolidated its influence after these elections and Prime Minister Kishida announced a willingness to return to the use of nuclear power to reduce concerns of a possible energy shortage.

China presented some less good economic data. The June GDP shows a slowdown in the country’s growth, a possible consequence of the long confinements to which some regions have been subjected.

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